Toyota Strategy Analysis

Toyota Strategy Analysis Automobile sector is known as one of the worlds most competitive and high tech sectors. But it is very difficult to enter into this sector because it needs huge capital to develop an infrastructure to compete with big giants of the market. Toyota corporation is also one the big giants. The following study is an analysis of this. The company was started in 1937 by Kiichiro Toyoda, now it is the second largest automobile manufacturer in the world after General motors. The following study undertakes the brief analysis of the different strategies implemented in the Toyota Corporation. These strategies were belonging to resource school of strategies and their main emphasis is on product quality. This study also provide us a insight view about the strength and weakness of Toyota and what are the future opportunities for them and what are the threats they can face as well. Introduction: Company Overview: Toyota is one of the leading Automobile manufacturers from Japan. The company manufactures almost all kind of vehicles like Buses, cars, SUVs, Forklifts, industrial vehicles and trucks. It was established in 1937 by Kiichiro Toyoda. In 1933 in his father factory, which was named as Toyoda automatic looms works Ltd., he established a small automobile unit. Then he visited many automobile plants in the United States. His unit was working to create fuel efficient vehicles in which they got succeeded in 1935. Than in 1937 he formally launched his own company with the name of Toyota Motors Company Limited. Toyota released its prototype small car in 1947. In 1949 the company was near insolvency, does not meet the payroll, and had to deal with the problems of workers. Toyoda left the seat due to economic failure in 1949. Shoichi Saito and Eiji Toyoda who were his successor start the business with modern techniques and injected more capital to take it in running form. They build Kanban system in 1954, to ensure that all manufacturing parts must be available in the stocks. The popular models were Celica which was introduced in 1970, Tercel was developed in 1978 and the most renowned Model Camry was introduced in 1980. Till 1980, Japan had manufactured more vehicles than the vehicles manufactured in United States and Toyota was one step below from the world largest cars producing company GM (General Motors). Toyota and GM motor joined hand in 1984 to build a new combine manufacturing Unit Lexington, Kentucky. After that, for the next ten years from 1980s to 1990s to build new plants in North America Toyota invested 6.5 billion US dollars. They diverted their attentions towards luxurious car manufacturing. In the global recession while every company i s in losses Toyota did not lose its market worth. Toyota has introduced first electricity and gasoline empowered car in 1997. In next two years they sold these cars in Japan up to 30,000. Over the time period its demand increases with a massive rate. Aims of Repot: This Report will provide a complete insight about the strategies of Toyota Corporation. It will tell us about the current business position of Toyota and how they have maintained the competitive advantage in the most competitive automobile industry. This will also provide us knowledge about different strategies used by Toyota. Literature Review Toyotas mission vision Toyota vision: Toyota Company is having very broader visions that depicts from their vision statement which is To be the most successful and respected car company in America It shows that Toyota wants to be the best company of the world but also to be best they do not want to comprise on their quality and customer friendliness. They want to be respected by their customers as well as their all other stake holders. Toyota mission: Toyota is company which is known due to its quality products. They provide their customer best quality and high value products in order to gain their loyalty this is also depicts from their mission statement. To attract and attain customers with high-valued products and services and the most satisfying ownership experience in America. This mission statement tells us that the mission of the Toyota is all about its customer. They want to provide high value products to attract new customers and to retain the older ones as well. Toyotas global strategic decision making Toyota Company has claimed that they will setup technology centers which will gear up their global decision making capabilities. They have faced 8 million orders of new cars per year thats why they need a speedy decision making system. They will increase the different center around the world in order to increase the efficiency of the product and speedy order processing. For this they have decided to build 6 units in North America, 6 in china and 7 units in Europe and many more in other countries. They are trying to be the world largest cars manufacturing company for this purpose they are decided to build Customer first training center in which they will ensure the quality and quantity of the products. The head of Toyota Company Akio Toyoda is giving more emphasis on the quality of the product in order to get more loyalty of the customer. For this purpose he has appointed the five best Chief quality officers around the world Including, For Europe Didier Leroy, For North America Angelo, For Asia Region Sonoda, Masahiro Kato is selection for China, and Africa, Latin America and Middle East he has appointed Two person Katsutada Masumoto and Hisayuki. The Main emphasis of Toyota Companys decision is to gain the customer loyalty and trust. Thats why in their every decision or strategy customer is the main beneficiary person. Recent Credit crunch badly affected the demand and growth of the Toyota. People purchasing powers are very low in this day thats why no one is going to buy new cars. This results a decrease in demand for new cars and eventually it will result in the reduction in the profit of the company. TOYOTA PEST ANALYSIS (P)OLITICAL: Instability is caused due to fuel efficiency an important decision factor for car buyers, increasing the chance of the plug-in hybrid. You can see some consumers will buy a hybrid plug-in like a train, dependence on foreign oil, and one that serves to strengthen the independence of the United States reduce the purchasing power in relation to the government. The Political instability around the world due to war and terror is also a big challenge for Toyota Corporation. (E)CONOMIC: The Oil prices by the concerns of increasing supply and demand will increase the attractiveness of the vehicle features such as plug-in hybrids that are less dependent on gasoline. Government increased tax credits and tax increases for gasoline, the possibility of plug-in hybrids. Global oil consumption has exceeded global production. India and china are growing at 8-10% per year put an enormous demand for oil on the world market prices to stay stable. (S)OCIO-CULTURAL: Positive factor for Toyota is that it is overall market leader with hybrid technology. Consumers will realize more their ecological footprint in the upcoming years. The operation of a hybrid is a status symbol in the young Hollywood. (T)ECHNOLOGICAL: Sales of hybrid vehicles will increase the competitive advantage over competitors with the potential mass market for hybrid technology and has established a strong position to innovate and develop hybrid platform to ward off competition. Next three years, Toyota and Honda are planning to hybrid power train to reduce weight by 50%. They also seek; the price of hybrid technology from $ 4,000 to $ 1,900 per vehicle as much low as possible. SWOT Analysis on Toyota Motor Corporation (S)trengths Toyota is having a very good recognition among 170 countries due to its multinational image. There is massive growth rate over the year around 29.3% with sales turn over around  £131,511 million during 2009. Due to its Lean production system which constitute of TQM a JIT Toyota has gained Worlds No. 1 Position. Toyota is considered now one of the worlds large car manufacturers due to entrance in major market of US, China and EMEA etc. Toyota is having Research and development center which is ensuring quality and environmental friendliness of the products. (Toyota Annual Report: 2009) (W)eakness Toyota is regarding as foreign imports due to the Japan based company. Toyota most of manufacturing Units are located in US and Japan only, while its competitors are taking the advantages of low production cost, cheaper labor and other cheaper management costs. (O)pportunities Due to shortage of Oil and increase in oil prices Toyotas management is looking for other alternatives like gas-guzzling cars and they are looking for new hybrid gas and electric cars production on mass scale. (Toyota Annual Report: 2009) Toyota is looking for cars that can increase performance, fuel efficiency and mainly environmental friendly. To develop the car which are controlled through electricity and fulfills the institutional and social requirements and cost effective for this purpose Toyota has established their Eco-Vehicle Assessment center. (Toyota Website) Now they are looking for big countries for the expansion purpose like Brazil, India, Pakistan, China and Russia. (T)hreats Competitive pressure is increased due to increase in Research and Development and belligerent marketing campaigns. Increase in the prices of raw materials. Decrease in the demand of new cars due to the recent recession around the globe. Purchasing power of the people is almost down to earth. To cater the need of larger family units who demand for larger cars. (Demographic Factor Website) In western countries there is large trend of using public transport instead of their own vehicles, this will eventually decrease the demand for new cars. (Market Research website) Nowadays people are more contented to send their child through school or college busses instead of their own cars. BCG Matrix (Toyotas products) The BCG model depicts that how much priority should be given to the particular business unit. Following is Toyota BCG model: The BCG Model Of Toyota Company Business growth Rate High Stars (Corolla) Question Mark (Cuore) Low Cash Cows (HiLux) Dogs High Low Relative Position Market Share The BCG Model Of Toyota Corolla Business growth Rate High Stars (2.0 D, 2.0 D Saloon) Question Mark (SE Saloon, GLi) Low Cash Cows (Xli 1.3) Dogs High Low Relative Position Market Share Toyota Resources School of Strategy: The Resource strategy is based on the argument that some companies develop a collection of their key competencies in which they can differentiate themselves from their competitors. The Toyota is known for its quality which they have developed after the hard work and commitment of decades. They have invested a lot in their employees, in their structure, in their manufacturing units, and most importantly in their products in order to reach this skill level. Porters 5 Forces and Generic Strategies (on Toyota) Threat of New Entrants: In Automobile business the threat of new entrance in the industry are very low because it is a high tech industry and needs huge amount of capital and innovative technology to establish a manufacturing unit. Bargaining Power of Suppliers: Toyota is one of the leading automobile manufacturers and holding a major share in the global market, so it has dominant role on its suppliers but it does not manipulate the rights of suppliers it take cares them and their needs as well. Intensity of Rivalry: The competition is very high in the Automobile industry the larger Automobile companies are General Motors, Ford and Honda are its main competitor. They are having large resources and they can any strategy to have customer without taking care of capital back up. Bargaining Power of Customers: As there is a large no. of substitute available in the market and the bargaining power of customer is high. Threat of Substitutes: Due to many substitutes available in the market for Toyota products as other manufacturers are producing same quality products as well.   Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚   7S Model (7s strategies of Toyota) Strategy Share Values System Style Structure Skills Staff Western Management of the Toyota is giving more importance to the hard side of the seven Ss model which includes structure, strategy and system. They give their more intentions towards day to day activities and daily events and to develop a better organizational structure in order to have and maintain competitive advantage. On the other hand Japanese management of Toyota pay more value to soft side of seven Ss model which includes sills, shared values and staff etc. They pay more intentions to get competitive advantage through their employees, they provide them training and different skills to enhance their working power and they have unique leadership style and unique shared values. DEMAND AND SUPPLY FOR TOYOTA In the market the price is totally depended on the price which is offered by the seller and the prices on which the buyer is willing to buy the product that is called market price. Here we will discuss the Toyotas demand and supply side factors which are the essential elements of the automobile market. The Following factors influence the demand and supply of automobile: 1. The price at which seller is ready to sell in the market after bargaining. 2. The price which at which any potential buyer is ready to buy from the market. In the market the Buyers make an offer for car and the seller has right either to accept it or reject it. Analysis of the Factors which affect the demand and supply of Toyota: The main factors which affect the demand of the Toyota in the UK are population, Income POPULATION The increase in population will result in increase in demand for the products. The increase in the population will increase the long run demand for Toyota cars. When the population increases the people will go for new product this will automatically increase the demand for products which are prevailing in the market. Following charts will show the rightward shift in the demand of the Toyota products which will cause due to the increase in the population around the world. P S D1 D When demand goes up Toyota has to increase its supply to cope with market needs. The New demand for Toyota products is depicted through D1 curve. INCOME Other determinant of demand and supply is the Income of adult. The Toyota Company has to look the income rate of adults before setting their prices. To increase the market share the Toyota has to look the right segment for the right products. As income level goes up the demand for the products also increases. Following charts will show the rightward shift in the demand of the Toyota products which will cause due to the increase in the income level of the population. P S D1 D When demand goes up Toyota has to supply to cope with market needs. The New demand for Toyota products is depicted through D1 curve.    Why is Toyota leading from others? The rise of Japanese manufacturers in the positions of global hegemony in the decades after World War II is well known. In recent years, despite the known problems for Japanese companies like Nissan and Toyota cars worldwide, including continued and even increased its competitiveness. This is based on the philosophy of a competitive advantage, such as the Toyota Production System that is well known. System depends in part on the management of human resources policies, promoting creativity and loyalty of employees, but also and above all, a very efficient network of suppliers, manufacturers of components. Toyota is second on the list, which includes fourteen worlds best manufacturers, including General Motors and Ford. While Honda and Nissan are now also considered high quality cars manufacturers but they can never defeat the Toyota in advantages of suppliers networks, Human resource management and distribution systems in World and in also in the most competitive market United States. Critical Analysis of Toyota: The technology is found all over the world and it is important to experiment for the company is recognized worldwide. In the world of automotive industry, Toyota is considered is to be a leading automobile company from Japan. This status they achieved by spending billions of dollars on new design and innovations in car and mass marketing campaigns. Toyota is in the eyes of consumers has emerged, many cars in the world. Toyota is enjoying a global reputation by building new, innovative and best quality products in affordable prices. As compared to its competitor Toyota is offering lower prices. The quality is the core strategy of the Toyota they do not compromise on it. They believe on a long term relationship with suppliers and with all other stake holders. Typically, the companies do not want to reduce their returns and follow the target strategy is for sale at cost price + profit = Sales prices. But Toyotas is having different approach a bit , which is devised in the car price cos t = profit. Strategic management in all organizations on their activities has a direct impact. This is the reason due to which Toyota is the leading car manufacturers policy; strategic management is attractive which has established in the world. It is easy for your new employees and managers, such as design and installation of the new car, get Training in the Centers which are located near to them. Toyota plans to build more new plants. Toyota is now one of leading automobile dealers due to its strategic management. The result of this strategic architecture, are based on a thorough analysis of corporate resources and skills, as well as the orchestration of strategic resources and capabilities over time in measures of productivity. Product quality of Toyota was compared with five other companies including Nissan, Honda, GM, Ford and Volkswagen. In vehicles problems that Toyota received are one on per hundred vehicles that make top ranked company among industry giants. This is harmonized by a recent test conducted on truck safety, Trucks Insurance Institute of America. In this study, rating of the Toyota Tundra was a good one amongst all its competitors. Impact of additional Assets The Following chart shows the data of productivity of the cars over 6 years from 2003 to 2008 amongst 6 giant car producers including, Ford, GM, Honda, Toyota, Nissan and Volkswagen. Above figure shows the employees productivity over 6 the years for different car producing countries. GM motors show very low productivity in terms of per employee. They start from 10,000 $ per employee which is very low they improve over the years but not as compared to others. In the end of 2008 they can just touched the 12500 dollar per employee productivity. The second company is also showing low results in terms of the productivity for per employee. They have fluctuations over the last 6 years. They started with 10300 $ and in the 2007 they crossed 15000 for per employee. But they went down in 2008 to 10800 $ productivity for per employee. Next company is Ford they are showing good growth over the years. The good thing was its having constant growth. They started with 15600 $ and after a constant growth ended with 25000 $ for per employee at the end of 2008. The Toyota is leading amongst the all; they are showing very good results over the 6 years from 2003 to 2008. They started good and end is also good. Toyota started with record opening of 42500$ per employee productivity. They are improved over the years. In the second year they went down little bit but they recovered from the very next year. They ended with the remarkable ending of 62500 US dollar per employee productivity. Even the world No. 1 company cannot compete with Toyota in terms of productivity. Honda is also showing very good results like the Ford Motors. They started very low from 13500 $ and ended with 23000 $ after 6 years. Nissan is also showing fluctuations over the years and the Volkswagen shown very low results as compared to all. BCG model Analysis: According to BCG analysis we can see Corolla line of products of Toyota is falling in stars that show the high growth rate and high market share as well. In needs a lot of investment because every new cent invested in this category will result in high returns. When we make further BCG matrix of Corolla line of product we found that 2.0 D and 2.0 D saloon these two models fall in stars it means these models are having high growth rate and high market share as well. They can earn much more results. SE saloon and GLi lies in question marks they need analysis to increase market shares. Xli 1.3 falls in cash cows and it has slow growth rate and having high market share. The Cuore Line of products of Toyota are having very high growth rate but very less market share as compared to Corolla line of products. Hilex line of products lies in Cash Cow category that have high market share but now low growth rate. It is also about to saturation point. Conclusions Recommendations Recommendations: The Toyota has achieved its current status by maintaining its product quality now they have market reputation so they never have to compromise on quality in every situation because competition is very strong and no room for mistakes.3 Secondly Toyota has good human resource management system as well it can also improve it to maintain its competitive edge. Toyota have many models which are performing very well in the market but on the other hand there are many other models which are just wasting the resources of the company, Toyota needs to do a brief analysis of them and if it is not possible to bring them in stars then company must have to drop these models. For investors, Toyota is still very good option to invest it is having very well past records, high productivity and huge market share and we can expect future demand as well. Conclusion: The Toyota is considered a place with high job satisfaction and to produce the high quality and customer oriented products. Toyota is one of the leading car producer made so many changes in their own plants and as well as their suppliers units as well. Toyota has adopted very successful system and developed a customer oriented market structure. Over the few years we have seen many drastic changes in the Toyota products which resulted in the high growth and more capital share.

Cowardliness? - Edgar Allan Poe :: essays research papers

Cowardliness? (Edgar Allan Poe – The Masque of the Red Death) Each person is individual. We actually act differently in the same situations. But the situation does not have to be so problematic and so stressing for each of us. Somebody will stay and face the arising problem and somebody will run away as quickly as possible. However still there is something we all have in common, we all hide a coward in ourselves. No matter how powerful, wealthy and strong we are, everybody is scared by something. This fatal fear makes us to do everything possible to avoid it and if there is no other way just to escape from it. But are we therefore cowards? There are lots of kinds of threats. Some of us are afraid of different sorts of animals, some are afraid of height, some are afraid of closed vessel, etc. However, the most usual fear is a fear of death. Also this piece of literature is about such a fear and what it can do to human. Poe chooses plague as his tool of death. He takes his time to perfectly describe how enormous threat such a plague can be: â€Å"No pestilence had ever been so fatal, or so hideous.† Another terrifying fact is that the plague is incredibly quick and therefore there is practically no chance to be cured: â€Å"At the whole seizure, progress and termination of the disease, were the incidents of half and hour.† To support the idea of dread, Poe is also describing the process of the horrible and painful dying: â€Å"There were sharp pains, and sudden dizziness and the profuse bleeding at the pores, with dissolution.† Moreover we can feel a certain respect to it. The author even calls it by a name â€Å"The Red Death† and uses capital letters. He is animating it this way and the reader realises it is not so easy to escape from it. So it is not surprising people are so thrilled by it. Maybe it is also because it is so painful. Maybe because it is extremely quick or maybe because it kills without any control. No matter if you are man, woman or child, if you are young or old, if you are rich or poor, etc. Poe uses a great example of what is human able to do to protect his own life. The Prince Prospero, â€Å"happy, and dauntless and sagacious† man has such a fear that he decides to isolate himself in a big fortress with â€Å"a strong and lofty wall girdled it in.

The Kashmir Earthquake of Oct.8.2005

October 8 Kashmir Earthquake: Impact on Geoenvironment and Structures in the Karnah and Uri Tehsils of Kashmir (India) A relief-come-earthquake investigation team of the Centre for Disaster Studies and Research, University of Jammu, Jammu (India) visited the Karnah Tehsil of Kupwara district for the purpose of distribution of relief goods provided by the University of Jammu and the Red Cross. Professor Amitabh Mattoo, Vice-Chancellor, University of Jammu, flagged off the team on 2nd November from Jammu.Professor Mattoo also accompanied the team upto Srinagar. The earthquake investigation team surveyed the area for collection of the first hand information on the geological aspects and impact of the October 8 earthquake in the Karnah and Uri Tehsils. The relief team surveyed the villages around Tangdhar area and accordingly the relief goods were distributed among 500 households in the villages of Tad, Nalchian, Sadana (Nastachhun), Drangyare, Tangdhar and Rangwar on 4-5 November 2005. Tangdhar-Tithwal valleyLandslides on the PAK Neelam Valley Road Besides distribution of the relief goods among the worst affected people in the area the team members interviewed a cross-section of populace in these villages to know about their future needs and problems they are likely to face. The team found that shelter is the main problem these people would be facing on the onset of winter in the area. The team also observed that the distribution of relief goods in the Karnah Tehsil was not according to the need of the people.Some areas received too much of the relief that people started choosing among the goods that were distributed among them while other areas (comparatively inaccessible areas) either did not receive the relief at all or if received it was inadequate. A Team Comprising of the following members Ghulam M. Bhat (Reader in Geology)*, Sandeep K. Pandita (Lecturer in Geology), Yudhbir Singh (Scholar – Landslides), Vinay Sharma (Scholar – Engineering Geol ogy), Sham Singh (Scholar – Sedimentology ) and Gulshan R Bhat (Scholar in Geography) visited the quake affected areas in Kashmir from Nov 2nd to 12th , 2005.The report is based on the investigations carried out by this team in Karnah and Uri Tehsils and was compiled in 3 rd week of November, 2005. *Post Graduate Department of Geology, University of Jammu, Jammu – 180 006 E-mail * [email  protected] com 1 There are 54 villages in the Karnah Tehsil and most of them are totally destroyed by the quake. Hundreds of people lost their lives, and thousands have been badly injured. About 50000 people have been rendered homeless by the quake in Karnah Tehsil alone.The area still trembles with aftershock tremors being felt every day. Most houses in the area have collapsed into heaps of rubble, and the remaining few that are left standing have developed severe cracks and can easily crumble due to aftershocks or under the weight of snow. Almost all people in the villages are now staying in tents and makeshift shelters made of tin sheets and wooden logs. They have lost almost all their personal possessions, stocks of food and domestic animals. Almost all shops and schools in the area have been destroyed.Roads and footpaths leading to the villages off the main highway have also been blocked by huge boulders and debris falls. Agricultural fields have developed deep cracks and the irrigation channels have been clogged. The earthquake investigation team visited Uri and villages beyond in the Baramulla district from 7-12 Noverber. The situation in this area is as stark as in Karnah. All the villages have been completely flattened, with almost every single building destroyed. More than 514 people have lost their lives in this area in the quake.Almost all families living there have been rendered homeless. Ruined Thamni village (Karnah) Flattened Ibkot village (Karnah) Although the government claims providing of relief to all the affected people, but there are nume rous complaints from the villagers about the distribution of relief by the government. For each person killed by the quake the kith and kin have received a sum of Rs. 50,000 only. The government also claims that it has supplied a single, one-month ration of 11 kg of rice, 700 gm of sugar per person and tea leaves, cooking- and kerosene oil.Although some villagers have received rice and sugar, but many others said that they have not received any relief from the Government. Almost every body in the area made a complaint that tea leaves, kerosene- and cooking oil have not reached the villages even after three weeks of the quake. People leveled allegations of large scale corruption in the distribution of the relief and accusations of local level officials misappropriating relief funds and material. The team was told of the politicisation of relief, with different political parties providing relief to their own supporters and vote-banks.Many people in these areas have lost foodgrains the y had stored for the winter and they need supply of grains and other food articles for at least four to five months. This part of Kashmir winesses severe winter and the temperature falls below minus 15 degrees Celsius and experiences snowfall of six feet and more. 2 The government has also announced a sum of Rs. 100,000 for each damaged house payable in two instalments (Rs. 40,000 and Rs. 60,000). However, this exgratia relief has not yet been given to each and every house owner.Even some of the damaged houses are yet to be registered, people claim. Those who have received this relief complaint that this amount is too little, and is not even enough to hire labour to remove the rubble and to purchase and transport material to build temporary shelters, let alone for reconstructing their homes. They want that the amount be substantially increased and also insist that it should be paid in one instalment. Receiving it in two instalments, as many of them argue, would mean that they might have to bribe the local officials twice, instead of once.The army has played commendable role in the relief work at some places, particularly immediately after the quake by transporting victims to hospitals, and providing relief material (food, shelter, etc. ) and medical assistance. Downslope tilting of the structures Tithwal Flattened Batpura Kandi (Karnah) The team noticed that relatively a few NGOs are involved in providing relief in the quake hit areas, particularly in Tangdhar and Uri. People in general complaint that these NGOs visit villages that are located on the main road, leaving out villages situated high up in the mountains.The team met many people who had trekked from remote villages to Tangdhar and other villages on the main road in the hope of getting some food or clothing from passing relief vehicles. The powerful and influential people get much more while the poor get inadequate relief and sometimes nothing. There are several instances of looting the relief trucks on their way to Tandhar and Tithwal. In several villages (near the main roads and main towns) large piles of clothes supplied by relief organisations have been thrown around. In some places people were using them to light bonfires to keep themselves warm.The relief organisations should send the materials of immediate use to the people, such as blankets, jackets, coats, socks and shoes, and kerocene oil. Most importantly, tin sheets are needed to build temporary shelters to tide over the severe winter that awaits them. Geological Investigation The Karnah Tehsils falls within the Kupwara district while the Uri Tehsil falls under the administrative control of the Baramulla district. The Tangdhar-Tithwal valley (Karnah) is drained by two main streams (the Batmaji River and the Qazinag River) which together confluence with the Neelam River (Kishanganga River) at Tithwal.On 3 either side of the Bathmaji and Qazi Nag Rivers are lofty mountain ranges which are cut into narrow gorges and de ep defiles. The terrain is rugged and remains snow covered during the winter months. The famous Sadana Pass, which lies at an elevation of 10417 feet above msl, cuts off the Karnah valley from the main Kashmir valley. The Tangdhar Tithwal valley hosts a population of about 50 thousand, which is mainly dependent on agriculture. A portion of the population works in public and private sectors within and outside the state. There are 54 villages, which are situated in the two subsidiary river valleys.Geologically the entire landmass of the Karnah Tehsil can be categorized in the three stratal categories including the older alluvium, older river terraces and the mountain and hill slopes. Agriculture is being practiced on the older alluvium and at places the settlements also exist on these deposits. Most of the settlements in the entire Karnah valley are confined either to the older river terraces or to the mountain and hill slopes. As a rule the mountain and hill slopes are vulnerable to landslips, landslides, debris flows and shooting stones, as is the case with the Karnah valley.Also the older terraces are highly vulnerable to debris flows and slips during flash floods and earthquakes. The Karnah valley is prone to flash floods as is evident from the recent records and the geological evidences in the area. Our investigation reveals that in the past the entire area has witnessed the earthquake comparable with the October 8 earthquake and even of more intensity. This fact has been confirmed by the local people who claim that their elders have revealed to them the furry of flash floods in the entire valley in the past that compelled them to shift their settlements to the mountain slopes.The furry of nature did not spare them even at the higher elevations when severe earthquake struck the region in the past killing most of the inhabitants settled on the mountain slopes. The skeletons of the buried human beings are sometimes brought out of the debris due to landslides and slips at a depth of about 20-m in both the Karnah and Uri areas. el am Ri ve r Ne 2150m 3100m 2250m Bathmaji River 1500 m Road Rupture 2000m 2100m Tract Fualt er River/stream Sinking Rupture zi N ag 1600m Locality R iv 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 km Ruptures developed on the mountain ridges in Karnah Area (G. M. Bhat et al. University of Jammu, 2005) Ka 4 Fig. 1: Tectonic map of the Tangdhar-Tithwal sector, Karnah The October 8, 2005 earthquake shook the entire Karnah Tehsil damaging almost 100% structures, killing about 270 human beings and thousands of animals. The earthquake has devastated the mountain cliffs, ridges, slopes and even the agricultural fields. The road network in the entire Karnah Tehsil traverses through the unstable zones. The only construction materials available in the area are rocks and timber. Almost all the residential and official buildings are multistoried and made up of rocks and timber.These structures are susceptible to collapse even at moderate earthquakes. It is because of the poor foundations and unstable ground conditions of the area that almost all the buildings within a radius of 60 km of the epicenter collapsed and within the radius of 100 km of the epicenter all the buildings were partially damaged. Liquefaction at Karalpura (Kupwara) Sand Blows at Simbal Camp, Jammu The Batmaji- and Qazinag Rivers are flowing along the fault lines in the Tangdhar-Tithwal area. The October 8 earthquake that occurred on the Main Boundary Thrust has activated these subsidiary fault lines in the area.The evidences are seen on either side of these fault lines along the mountain ridges whose expression is visible on the mountain slopes in the form of longitudinal cracks. These cracks are a few meters in aperture and a few meters deep on the mountain ridges. At places a vertical slip of about 1-m is seen in these mountain ridge cracks. We noticed these ridge cracks from Tithwal through Green Patch, Dhaken, Amrui, Tad, Sadana Pass, to Chokibal and from Tithwal through Tangdhar Bakhain, Rangwar and Karalpura to Nutnusa. The salient features of these fractures and the field notes taken on these displacements are briefly described here.Karalpura An earthquake of magnitude 4. 4 with its epicenter at lat 34. 59 0 N and long 73. 620 E on 3rd of November, 2005 at 0625 hours produced liquefaction in the village of Karalpura. On our return from Tangadhar on 7 th of November the process was on and the area of activity had spread over to about 4 square km in the vicinity. There are a number of other sites in this area where water was oozing out of the paddy fields and in the Dar Mohalla of the Karalpura town. On the 3rd of November the water gushed out at three spots in the Dar Mohalla and ejected black sand in large quantity which was thrown into the air upto 1. m. Liquefaction is a process that occurs when a loosely packed grain framework is suddenly broken down; the grains become temporarily suspended in the pore fluid, and settle throug h the fluid, displacing it upward, until grain-supported 5 structure is re-established. The lower threshold of shaking intensity of about MM VI can produce liquefaction in sensitive deposits. Liquefaction can be developed at earthquake magnitudes as low as about 5, but that a magnitude of about 5. 5 to 6 is the lower limit at which liquefaction effects become relatively common.At Karalpura the sand blow craters are 0. 7 m in diameter and have ejected black sand in large quantity. It is located at about 100-km aerial distance from the epicenter of the earthquake. The ejected sand suggests the alluvial fan deposits at depth. It is interesting to note that the Karalpura liquefaction initiated due to an earthquake of magnitude 4. 4 and after one months period from the main quake. The liquefaction associated with the October 8 earthquake and aftershocks offers an opportunity to develop relations to constrain the magnitude of the past earthquakes in the same tectonic setup.It is also the best reference to compare its dimensions with the palaeo-liquefaction and thereby to assess the recurrence interval for larger events for the same seismic source or an average interval for a region. The liquefaction process can help to identify the earthquake prone areas and contribute to the earthquake hazard assessment. 2700m 1800m Kamalkot Chakoti 1100m Kaman Urusa 1300m 1350m Chakra Isham 1400m 2000m Jabla Uri 1400m 1400m Salamabad Lagama 1400m Fault Line Locality Kamalkot Mt Ghundi 1600m Basgiran Sultan Dhakki m e lu Jh R iv er Road(NH) River/Stream Path Sinking Rupture 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 kmRuptures developed on the mountain ridges in Uri-Kaman Post sector (G. M. Bhat et al. , Geology Department, University of Jammu, 2005) Fig. 2: Tectonic map of the Uri-Kaman Post Sector, Kashmir 6 Loss of Agricultural fields (Patti Thamni) Karnah Building on the older alluvium (Karnah) Green Patch Green patch is the mountain ridge at an elevation of about 1900-m above msl. Below this ridge is situated the villages of Beari and Dringla on its western and eastern slopes respectively. These villages host about 100 households with a population of about 700. The entire settlement has been razed to the ground.The mountain slopes have been cracked both longitudinally and transversely. The cracks run parallel to each other for a few hundred of meters and are often cut across by subsidiary cracks. The aperture of the main cracks ranges from 1 m to 4 m and a visible depth of about 3-m. At the ridge of the Green Patch there exists a large crack which runs all along the ridge for about 1. 0 km till it coincides with the another crack developed in the adjoining mountain ridge cutting across the Green Patch ridge. On either slope of the Green Patch Mountain longitudinal and transverse cracks of different sizes have developed.The Longitudinal cracks run parallel to the main ridge crack. The vertical slip of the Green Patch ridge is about 1. 0 m with the crack aperture approaching 4 m. Cracks in Green Patch Mt. ridge Shattered rocks on the Green Patch Mt. ridge Dakhen The Dakhen Mountain is about 2000 m above msl and on its eastern side are situated the villages of Ibkot, Pati Dakhen, Pati Thamni and Bahadarkot and on its western side is situated the Green Patch. The mountain ridge is fissured all along the ridge for a few kilometers in the NNE-SSW direction. Main lithology of the mountain is 7 quartzites and phyllites.On either side of the ridge occur a number of parallel fractures on the slopes whose aperture ranges from 15 cm to a maximum of 1. 0 m. These fractures are deep and the visible depth is 1. 5 m. At the mountaintop the vertical slip of about 0. 75 m has taken place. There are about 90 households situated on both the sides of this mountain with a population of about 400. Almost all the houses are razed to the ground with heavy human casualty and tremendous loss to the livestock. The slopes are vulnerable to the landslips and debris flows, which can tri gger during rains and future earthquakes.Tithwal Mountain Ridge The Tithwal Mountain ridge is also fissured and has resulted in the rock falls, which has inundated the Tithwal town. The road section beyond Tithwal town has been scrapped out into the Neelam River. Tithwal village is almost 100% damaged. A few buildings are standing but are unsafe for living. Settlements in the foot of the mountain range are highly vulnerable to future landslips and shooting stones. Chhamkot-Sikh Bridge The villages between Chhamkot and Sikh Bridge include Pingla-Haridal and Chitarkot. At Pingla-Haridal is situated a hydroelectric power project of 2 MW capacity on the Qazinag River.This power project lies just below the confluence of the Batmaji River with the Qazinag River and has been severely damaged by the earthquake. The massive debris flow has occurred in this stretch of the valley and a large piece of agricultural land has got lost. Two human bodies are still buried under the huge debris fall d eposit near the powerhouse site in the Qazinag Riverbed. The paddy fields on either side of this stretch of the valley have developed parallel cracks running along the river course (NNW-SSE) whose aperture ranges from a few centimeters to 0. m. The visible depth of these cracks is about 2 m. A large fissure cuts across the National Highway at Chitarkot. The aperture of the fissure is 1. 0 m and its visible depth is almost 3 m. From Chitarkot towards Sikh Bridge a number of debris fall deposits have destroyed the National Highway. . Fissures in the Green Patch Mountain Building on the older river terrace 8 Kandi The Kandi village lies on either side of the highway and has been devastated by the earthquake. It hosts a population of about 1500 confined to about 350 households.On the hill side of this township emanates a spring on the mountain slope, which ejects black and creamy slurry at regular intervals. The water content of the springs in the area has also increased after the earth quake. Below the township of Kandi are situated the villages of Chanpura and Trebani which together hosts a population of about 200 in about 40 households. The earthquake has destroyed all the households and has ruptured the paddy fields. Liquefaction has occurred during the main earthquake at a number of places in the area.The mountain slope on the eastern side of these villages has been fissured at the ridge and at a number of places on its slope. The slip is about a meter at the ridge. At a number of places debris and rock falls have inundated the houses situated at the foot of the mountain and a few houses are totally buried under the debris. Opposite the Kandi Bala a tipper has been buried under the debris which has fallen from this mountain. Tangdhar Bakhain The Bakhain Ridge is also fissured which runs parallel to the Tangdhar nar in the vicinity of Tangdhar town.On either side of this ridge are situated number of villages and an army camp. The rocks of the mountain are mainl y quartzite and form its steep slopes on either side. The whole mountain has developed fissures of different sizes, which run parallel to the main ridge fissure. The main fissures are 3 m deep having an aperture of 1 m. The vertical displacement is about 0. 5 m. On either side of the mountain slope rock falls have taken place and scarps have developed. Boulders as big as a building have slipped down the mountain and hit the buildings situated at the foot of the mountain.There is high risk of falling of these hanging rock blocks and can be of serious consequences. Evidence of the past human settlements exists on this mountain. It is said that Dub Wali Mosque was situated on this mountaintop in the past. An earthquake of severe intensity destroyed the settlement. There are a few Okhalies scattered on the mountain slopes and its top, which have been carved out in huge rock blocks of quartzites. Besides, a number of earthen parts (broken) are scattered on the slopes and mountaintop, a f ew of them embedded in the topsoil of the mountain. Fissure at the Tangdhar BakhainOkhali found at the Bakhain Mt ridge 9 Sadana Pass (Nasta Chhun) On the left side of the Sadana Pass lies the snow-covered mountain known as Eagle top on which was situated an army post. On the day of earthquake rock fall occurred on this mountain resulting in the burial of the army post killing 12 jawans who are buried there for ever. On the ridge of this mountain fissures have developed which are in continuity with the fissures developed in the mountain ridges of the Karnah valley. On the National Highway 4 km before the Sadana Pass fissures have occurred on the mountain slopes which traverse the highway also.In the same direction and in its continuity lies the mountain at Rangwar, which has developed large fissures similar to those of the Karnah Valley Mountains. The Rangwar village has been totally devastated and a population of about 100 people has shifted from the village to the roadside (a walk of about 2 hours). In this locality parallel fissures have resulted in rock- and debris falls inundating the settlements and the agricultural fields. Below this location towards Kupwara the intensity of damage is progressively decreasing.However, it is not known whether fissures have developed in the mountain ridges and slopes of this belt or not. Evidences of rupture in the agricultural fields and around the settlement at Karalpura suggest that fissures may have also developed in the vicinity of these areas. We observed liquefaction at Armpura, Nutnusa, and Badarkal on its journey to Uri via Kupwara-Handwara-Baramulla road. The local residents said that on the earthquake day blue coloured water ejected out of these liquefaction craters and at a few places brownish water emanated.The craters have dried up since but the scars are still present in these areas. People also revealed that water in the springs in these areas has increased due to the earthquake. We were told by the local people in the entire Karnah valley about the abnormal animal behavior (dogs and jackals) one day before the earthquake struck the area. They say that at the mountain ridges and slopes flames were seen emanating at the places where ruptures have occurred. This was followed by the dust bursts into the air. The intensity was so severe that for the full day the visibility was very poor.It was not until the rains started on the evening of October 8 that settled the dust clearing the atmosphere. During our stay in the Karnah valley 3-4 aftershocks were felt daily whose intensity was enough to cause further damage to the hanging structures, walls and tilting of the trees. The area is still experiencing the aftershocks and none of them of magnitude above 6 (IMD). 10 Kaman Post bridge The inner walls intact in a mud mortar house (Karnah) On the way to Uri from Baramulla we observed fissures developed on the banks of the Jhelum River near Sheeri.The fissures are continuous along the riverbank s whose aperture varies from a few centimeters to more than meter. The visible depth of these fissures is more than 2 m. On the left bank of Jhelum River at this location there are cracks in the mountain slopes which can be traced upto Tangamerg and beyond. Jehlum River bank near Kichhama Buildings on the bed rock near Red Bridge, Uri The spring situated near the mountain foot at the village Kichhama has completely dried up immediately after the October 8 earthquake. The spring water was used to irrigate about three hundred kanals of paddy land in the area.The fissures are traceable from this locality through the villages of Malpura, Dangapura, Sultanpura Kandi, Dudhbug, Nilasar, Chunti Pathri, Babarishi upto Tangmarg. In this belt the intensity of damage to the buildings increases towards the mountain slopes and their foot belt. Most of the buildings are not safe for living in this belt. Uri to Kaman Post The National Highway 1A from Uri to Kaman Post, a stretch of 17. 2 km, is tot ally damaged by the earthquake. The highway stretches have been washed away completely at a number of places.Culverts, bridges and other infrastructures have been damaged. It was in this sector of the highway that 66 Beacon personnel, who were at work, got killed during the earthquake. A number of vehicles including those of Beacon and private 11 sector have got damaged on this highway. Landslips, debris- and rock falls and shooting stones have struck most of the road sections. Almost total stretch of the highway has developed cracks along and across its entire length from Uri to Kaman Post. The main bridges, which have been damaged, include those of Red Bridge, Twin Bridge and the Aman Sethu.The most damaged bridge is the Aman Sethu whose one abutment on the PAK side and one panel of 70 m in length has been completely destroyed. All the buildings from Uri onwards have been damaged and the intensity of damage is complete beyond the Uri town. The area hosts a population of about 115 thousands. On either side of the Jhelum River the mountain ridges and their slopes have been fissured. The fissures run parallel to the river axis. The most devastated ridges include those at Sultan Daki, Kamalkot on the rightbank of the Jhelum River.The left bank mountain ridges and slopes fissured occur at Kaman Post, between km 8-10 to Kaman Post, Salamabad and Uri. Damaged and blocked Uri-Kaman Post-Muzzaffarabad Road sections Sultan Dhaki and Kamalkot On the mountain ridge above the township of Sultan Daki a large fissure has occurred on the eastern slope due to the October 8 earthquake. Black and brownish coloured water emanated from a number of spots which gushed out into the air a few tens of feet on the day of earthquake, said one soldier posted at a near by army post.Earlier the quantity of water emanating from this spring was a few inches, which is now flowing in the form of a large stream capable to run a few mills. The quantity of black water emanated from this fissure can be judged from the fact that the colour of the Jhelum River water from this point downstream turned black for about 15 days. The rocks on the mountain slopes over which the stream is flowing have turned either black or brown, which can be seen from the distant location on the National Highway. A similar water ejection has taken place on the same mountain ridge at Kamalkot about 5 km downstream.Both the areas have suffered a great damage as far as the buildings, livestock and the human causalities are concerned. These two townships have become most vulnerable to future landslips, rock- and debris falls and shooting stones. The 12 fissures developed on these mountain ridges and slopes are 4 to 5 m in aperture, more than 6 m in visible depth and are continuous for a few kilometers. There are a number of transverse cracks, which have developed across the longitudinal fissures. There is visible movement along these cracks in the entire area, which has frightened the local populace in general.At many places in this belt the agricultural land has been washed away by the landslips and debris falls. It is in this area that skeletons of human beings get exposed from the old debris, which has accumulated over them for the last few centuries. Possibly a strong earthquake may have struck this area devastating the settlements on these mountain slopes which got buried under the falling debris at that time. Similar is the situation today that at a number of places in the entire sector many of human bodies are lying under the huge mass of debris, which fell on them during the recent earthquake.Sultan Dhaki Mt. rupture (Kamalkot) Upslope tilting of the structure at Kamalkot Kaman Post The abutment of the Kaman Post Bridge (Aman Sethu) has been completely damaged on the PAK side. It is completely grounded and one of the three panels on that side is also completely destroyed. The central two piers have developed cracks at the foundation level and are unsafe for future use. On the Indian side abutment being partially built on the bed rock has sustained the shock. However, the complete bridge should be reconstructed on the firm foundation preferably at a new location.The bridge is located over the Khaliane de Kas (dry nala) through which runs a subsidiary fault of the Jhelum Tear Fault. The older river terrace at the Kaman Post on the PAK side has fallen into the nala over which the bridge is erected. The whole highway stretch on the PAK side is also destroyed. National Highway at Km 8 to 10 At this location the highway is damaged and a portion of it has been washed away. There exist a number of longitudinal cracks on the highway, which run parallel to the fissures, which have developed on the mountain ridges and their slopes. The fissures are about 1 m in aperture and a few meters deep.There is a vertical slip of about 1-m along these cracks. These displacements have resulted in rock- and debris falls and shooting stones in this sector of the highway. Th e settlements on these mountain slopes have been completely destroyed. Water in the springs emanating on these slopes have increased due to the earthquake. However, slowly and steadily is now decreasing. We 13 observed cracks cutting across the main fissures on the mountain slopes along which vertical displacement has taken place. Red Bridge Both the abutments of the Red Bridge have developed cracks.One of the abutments has partially fallen. There are severe cracks developed on the road and fissures occur at the mountain slopes at this location. These fissures are in continuity with other fissures developed on the mountain ridges in the area. Cracks on the slope at Jula village, Uri Twin Bridge, Uri Twin Bridge The earthquake has also destroyed the Twin Bridge. Both of its abutments have been damaged and the cracks are developed on the road section. These cracks are also expression of the main fissures developed on the mountain ridges and their slopes in the area.Besides the main br idges on the highway sector from Uri to Kaman Post a number of culverts have been partially damaged. Mention may be made of these damaged bridges and culverts i. e. , Red Bridge, Twin Bridge, Kaman Post Bridge, Lagama culvert, Salamabad, Urusa, Bhim Post, etc. Structures The intensity distribution estimated and interpreted by the Pakistan Geological Survey is closely associated with the rupture zone (Hussain et al. , 2006). Within the rupture zone, the city of Muzaffarabad suffered great damage (IX-X on MMI scale), and the city of Balakot was almost totally destroyed (X on MMI scale).Outside the narrow (5-10 km) width of the rupture zone, the signs of damage appeared to be fairly minor. While damage has been reported in more distant locations such as Abbottabad (35 km from rupture zone), Islamabad (64 km), and Lahore (> 250 km distant), and has been attributed to local site effects or poor construction rather than direct intense shaking from the earthquake. Table 1: Locality-wise in tensity of earthquake affected areas in Jammu and Kashmir Locality Intensity Locality Intensity 14Simbal Camp (Jammu)* IX Trebani IX Chanpura IX Uri Tehsil Kamalkot X Tad IX Sultan Dhaki Village IX Chitarkot X Sultan Dhaki Hill X Chamkot X Urusa IX Pingla Haridal X Jabla IX Bahadarkot X Salamabad VIII Ibkot X Lagama VII Dakhan X Kichhama IX Gundi Saiyidan IX Nambla IX Gundi Gujaran IX Sadwanian IX Gundi Shath IX Isham IX Thamni X Dringla X Karnah Tehsil Rangwar IX Tithwal X Drangyare IX Beari X Nastachhun VII Green Patch IX Bagh Bella IX Kupwara and Handwara Nalchian IX Karalapura* IX Tangdhar VIII Natnus* IX Tangdhar Bakhain VIII Armpura* IX Kandi Bala X Badarkal* IX * Intensity measured on the basis of liquefaction only Table 2: Locality-wise building types and percentage of damages Simbal Camp (Jammu) Kamalkot Sultan Dhaki Village Urusa Jabla Salamabad Lagama Kichhama Rangwar Tangdhar Tangdhar Bakhain Kandi Bala Chanpura Tad Chitarkot Chamkot Pingla Haridal Bahadarkot Ibkot Dakha n Thamni Dringla Tithwal Beari A&B C&D B, C & D B, C & D C&D B&C B&C B C&D A, B, C&D B&C B&C B&C C&D B&C B&C B&C C&D C&D C&D D B, C&D B, C&D C&D 2-3% 90-95% 90-95% 60-70 % 60-70% 65-75% 40-50% 30-40% 80-90% 50-65% 60-80% 80-90% 80-90 % 100% 80-90 % 75-80 % 80-90 % 90-95% 100% 100 % 100 % 80-90% 100% 100% The damage by the earthquake in Karnah and Uri areas has been severe close to the epicenter in the range of 50 km and progressively decreasing away. The intensity of 15 damage at various localities in the surveyed areas on the revised MMI Scale (ABAG, 2003) is given in Table 1. The type of the houses and the percentage of damages are shown in Table 2. In both the areas of Uri and Karnah most of the villages are built either on the older river terraces or on the hill slopes. The constructed houses in these areas are mostly single or double storey un-reinforced earthen wall stone masonry buildings.Stone masonry buildings are more common in these villages. The stone masonry walls consi sted of irregularly placed undressed/dressed stones, rectangular and rounded, that were laid in cement sand and mud mortar. A significant number of casualties and injuries were associated with the total collapse of these structures. Unreinforced one or two storey brick masonry buildings with roofs constructed with wood and CGI tin sheets are also seen in these areas. These structures were also razed to the ground within the 10 km range of LOC. The area affected by major shaking lies within a radius of 50 km from the epicenter with the destructiveness of the shaking reducing quickly as one move away from the LOC.The intensity of the shaking has been severe in Karnah- and Uri Tehsils in the vicinity of LOC. In these areas a 1. 0 to 1. 5 m vertical slip component has caused the extreme damage to the structures. These structures mostly collapsed in place, rather than being thrown over or developing diagonal tension cracks. Our observations in Kashmir reveal that three types of ground co nditions prevail in the earthquake affected areas. We also observed four types of building structures including Masonry A, B, C, and D in these areas. The intensity of damage varied in the three types of ground conditions even for the same type of masonry structure (both vernacular and modern engineered structures).In case of concrete block construction, the problems include poor block strength, weak mortar and lack of seismic detailing. In whole of the Karnah area we noticed two buildings constructed following the building codes. These buildings have behaved different to the earthquake shaking due to the different ground conditions. In general fire-clay brick masonry wall buildings have performed better than the other types of wall construction. A number of buildings in the area are wooden frame structure filled block or brick wall with either cement or mud plaster finish. Either type of buildings has suffered damages different one another according to the ground conditions in the area.The Jammu and Kashmir State has been classified in the zone-IV with two patches placed in zone V in the seismotectonic map of India 2002. These estimates are based on scanty earthquake record of the area. The northwestern part of Himalaya has been neglected regarding the studies on earthquakes and crustal deformation as compared to other parts of India. A series of active thrusts and faults are running across the state. Seismic hazard is not given a great deal of attention in urban planning and policy decisions, and seismic design does not appear to be high priority in the state. There is no code enforcement in the region. The observations mentioned above should be kept in view while formulating building codes for these and other similarly situated areas in Jammu and Kashmir.We also suggest that micro-zonation of the major cities and towns are taken up at priority basis before the building codes are formulated for the state. Other Aspects 16 In addition to the geological invest igations we collected data on other aspects including village-wise death tool of human and livestock and loss of structures. The villages and towns surveyed include Tangdhar, Kandi, Ibkot, Dringla, Tithwal and Uri. The salient features of this study based on questionnaire filled up by the randomly selected 87 householders are given in Tables 3 to 6. Stone masonry building on the bed rock at Kandi Concrete Building on the older alluvium (Tribuni) Table 3: No. f Deaths in the households of the Surveyed villages Area Deaths Percent (%) Uri Sultan Dhaki 26 38. 80 Kamalkot 09 13. 45 Ibkot 07 10. 45 Kandi 08 11. 94 Panjtaran 15 22. 38 Tangdhar Beari 02 2. 98 Total 06 67 100. 0 Villages Table 4: Demographic Change in the Population of the Surveyed Area S. No 1 2 3 Sex & Age Male Child Female Child Male Adult Past Present Dead population population 141 121 20 (29. 85) 107 165 143 556 102 143 123 489 05 (7. 47) 22 (32. 83) 20 (29. 85) 67 4 Female Adult Total 17 Figure 1: Past & Pre sent Popu lation Status 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 M ale Fem ale Child Child Male Fe m ale Adult Adult Number pas t pop. res ent pop. Age & Sex Groups Table 5: Availability of amenities in the Surveyed Population Amenities Uri Available 25 05 00 00 00 Tangdhar Available 16 14 00 14 00 Electricity Water Education Ration Medical facility Not Available 00 20 05 20 00 Partially Available 00 00 20 05 25 Not Available 46 48 60 46 38 Partially Available 00 00 02 02 24 It can be viewed that about 31 percent of the households have got full-fledged Govt. /Social amenities and 69 percent of the households are partially benefited. The educational facility in both the areas has come to standstill. The list of village-wise deaths reported from Uri Tehsil is given in Table7.Table 6: Status of loss from the total households of the surveyed area Parameter Loss No loss Total Conclusions In the Karnah valley the mountain ranges on either side of the Batmaji and Qazinag Rivers have developed fissures at t heir ridges and their subsidiaries on their slopes. The fault line lies along these rivers, which has got activated by the recent Property ( % ) 85 (97. 7) 02 (2. 3) 87 (100. 0) Livestock ( % ) 22 (25. 28) 65 (74. 72) 87 (100. 0) 18 earthquake. This has resulted in a net vertical slip in the entire area, which has its expression in the development of fissures on the ridges of the mountains. The area is witnessing the aftershocks of intermediate magnitude daily whose frequency varies between 2 to 3. The expression of this fault line is traceable beyond the Karnah valley across the Sadana Pass in theKupwara Tehsil through Chokibal, Rangwar, Nutnusa, and beyond. The ongoing liquefaction process at and around Karalpura should be closely monitored because it involves more areas with the passage of time. This is also necessary because this location is the only one that has got involved in this process after the main earthquake of October 8. Its intensity increases with the increase in the magnitude of the earthquakes taking place in the region. Deaths in Different Age Groups 17% 40% 0–15 16–30 31–59 23% 20% 60+ Similarly the mountain ranges in the Uri-Kaman Post sector of the Uri Tehsil have developed fissures on the ridges with subsidiaries on their slope.These fissures are developed on either side of the Jhelum River. In this area the Jhelum Tear Fault runs all along the river axis and has got activated by the recent earthquake. Evidences suggest that the readjustment of the rocks is still in progress and results in earthquakes whose epicenter is located around this area. The USGS observatories have also recorded the seismic activity in its vicinity. This fault line needs to be closely monitored during the times to come. Of all the surveyed households 71. 3 percent have received relief material in terms of money and clothes, tents, blankets etc. but 28. 7 percent of the households are yet to receive the relief material from the government agen cies.From the total surveyed households more than half of the households i. e. 58. 6 percent want to migrate from their native areas, while as a total of 41. 4 percent want to hold back there. From the surveyed households it was observed that 62. 1 percent of the people are in a state of high mental stress and 37. 9 percent had been affected to a moderate extent. Of the total 41 injured people from the surveyed households 17 people were seriously injured while as 24 people were partially injured. The households also received a serious loss in terms of their livestock i. e. , a total of 22 households had their livestock completely perished. 19 Table 7: Village-wise death toll in the Uri Tehsil S. NO. 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 NAME OF VILLAGE KAMALKOTE BANDI SARAI CHAPPAR KUNDI BARAJALA SADARA SULTAN DHAKKI BASGRAN DACHI NAWA ARUNDA URDOSA CHAKRA ISHAM BATGRAN GOHALAN CHRUNDA TILWARI URI DEATHS 86 53 10 39 19 46 21 4 22 7 10 24 7 7 31 1 13 S. NO 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 2 5 26 27 28 29 30 31 NAME OF VILLAGE URI MOHURA LIMBER BANDI BRAHMANA MACHI SUKHDHAR DARAGUTILAN DAWARAN DHANI SYDAN CHOOLAN ZAMORPATTAN THAJAL GINGAL GAWALTA NAMBLA TOTAL DEATHS 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 514 – – – Suggestions and Future Plan The Uri-II hydroelectric (HE) Project is under construction, which is a concrete straight gravity dam across the Jhelum River, at 1 km upstream of Dachhi Bridge near Salamabad village. During the recent earthquake the buildings of the project have been severely damaged and some damage has been caused to the dam structure as well.The project is a run of the river scheme with its weir near Dachhi village where from the water will be diverted through 540 m open channel followed by 4. 275 km long HRT to underground power house (PH) at Sadwanian village on the left bank of Jhelum River. The discharge from the PH will be diverted to the Jhelum River through a 3775-m TRT with its fallout in Gosalta nala near Urus a. The catchment area of Jhelum River up to dam site of Uri-II HE project is 13400 km2 comprising 12743 Km2 catchment area up to Uri-I head works and 657 km2 intermediate catchment area up to Uri-II dam site. The Design Flood (PMF) has been calculated as 4850 m3/sec. The Full Reservoir Level (FRL) is at 1241 m and the gross storage at FRL is 634. 31 ha m.The downstream areas vulnerable to inundation by dam break flood should be shown in the inundation map. The inundation map should be prepared with the help of water surface elevation profile, which has been computed for maximum flood elevation and discharges at various downstream locations. The detailed inundation map on 1:2,000-scale should be prepared and displayed at all the downstream flood prone locations depicting maximum water level that would be attained. The elevation also should be marked on the inundation maps depicting the topographic and geographical details of downstream areas. 20 Both the areas (Karnah and Uri) fall i n the transition zone between seismic zones IV and V.From north to south three main thrusts occur in the region. They include the Main Karakoram Thrust, which separates the Hindukush-Karakoram belt from the Island Arc of Kohistan. In the south the Main Mantle Thrust separates the latter from Peshawar and Kashmir basins. The southern most is the Main Boundary Thrust, which separates the Lesser Himalaya from the Outer Himalaya. Panjal- and Murree Thrusts are the main tectonic planes that traverse the area. Besides, the Jhelum Tear Fault running in the N-S direction upto Muzzaffarabad and then E-W upto Baramulla separating the Peshawarfrom the Kashmir basin is the most active tectonic plane in the area.Though the area of downstream impact of the Uri-II is only spread over for about 15 km on the Indian side of the LOC but a population of about 7600 people is settled within the reach of dam break flooding. Besides, large population and agricultural and forestlands are at risk in case of dam failure beyond 10 km downstream reach in the PAK. Dam break would also adversely affect these areas. Therefore, monitoring of the RIS and seismic activity in the area is of utmost importance. The water level v/s flood wave has been worked out for project by one of us (GMB) which is given in figure below. Water Level v/s Flood Wave Level 1250 1250 1150 1100 1050 1000 950 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Down stream Locations Water level Level of Flood Wave Water Level (m) 1150 1100 1050 1000 950S. No 1 2 3 4 5 6 Distance from Dam site (d/s) Dam Axis 200m 700m 2950m 3110m 6100m S. No 7 8 9 10 11 Distance from Dam site (d/s) 8225m 10100m 11475m 12919m 14915m The area has experienced earthquakes of moderate to severe intensity in the past. The epicenters of major earthquakes in Kashmir are related with the mega- (more than 200 km) and intermediate lineaments (100-200 km). However, there is no documentation of seismic activity along the thrusts cutting across the project area. Therefore, a pl an of seismic surveillance of the area by establishing a network of seismic monitoring stations is proposed preferably jointly by India and Pakistan.There are evidences of neotectonic 21 Level of Flood Wave (m) 1200 1200 activity along the thrusts in the area; these thrusts should also be kept under the surveillance for such activities. The area is traversed by Panjal- and Murree Thrusts and Jhelum Fault and, falls in the transition zone between seismic zones IV and V. Besides, a number of lineaments transversely cutting across this thrust- and fault imbricate make the area more prone to neotectonic activity. These structural discontinuities coupled with joint systems and foliation in the rocks of the area makes it more prone disasters. Acknowledgements We wish to place on record sincerely gratitude due to Prof.Amitabh Mattoo, Vice-Chancellor, University of Jammu without whose inspiration, guidance and help the first outreach activity of the Centre for Disaster Studies and Research would not have been possible. We gratefully acknowledge the support extended by the BRO (Beacon) officials (Brigadier S. S. Dasaka, CE; Lt. Col. Jyant Bhamare, O/C 53 RCC and Maj. Y. C. Srivastava, O/C 109 RCC) during our stay in the area and conducting geological investigations. Thanks are due to Army Officials 3 Panjab and Dogra Regiment for their help in conducting the geological survey in the sensitive areas under their command. We gratefully acknowledge the help rendered by Qazi Ab.Hameed (younger brother of ViceChancellor, University of Kashmir), Qazi of the Karnah, whose company with us in the field for two days proved very fruitful in collecting the vital geological information from the area. We would like to place on record the co-operation extended to us by people in guiding us to the most affected areas in the region. We also received help from the J&K Police Department, Beacon and district authorities in the distribution of relief goods in the quake affected areas of Kar nah. References ABAG (2003). Modified Mercalli intensity scale from Richter, C. F. , 1958, Elementary Seismology , W. H. Freeman and Co. , San Francisco, pp. 135-149; 650-653. Bhat, G. M. , Pandita, S. K. , Singh Yudhbir, Singh Sham, Sharma Vinay and Bhat Gulshan (2005).Report on Quake hit Karnah and Uri Tehsils, Kashmir, pp. 1-22 Hussain, S. , Ahmed, N. , Khazai, B. , Ali, Q. , Ali, S. M. and Khan, M. (2006). The Kashmir earthquake of October 8, 2005: Impacts in Pakistan. EERI Special earthquake report 22 The Members of the Relief – come – Earthquake Investigation Team University of Jammu Sitting First Row left to right Kanchan Sharma, Sanjeev Sharma, Shahnawaz, Iftekhar Sitting Second Row left to right Sham Singh, Vinay Sharma, Rashid Choudhary, Yudhbir Singh Standing from left to right Vikrant Singh, Prof. Ashok Aima, Prof. V. K. Kapoor, Dr. G. M. Bhat, Dr. S. K. Pandita, Ajay Kumar, Gulshan Rashid Bhat 23

Why Spanish Isnt Easier to Learn Than French